Michael van Gerwen heads into the World Grand Prix in Leicester next week looking to avoid a hat-trick of first-round exits, having fallen at the first hurdle in each of the last two years. The Dutchman, seeded number nine, is the most experienced man in the building, but his recent struggles stand in stark contrast to a remarkable history at the double-in major. Six World Grand Prix titles, with the first coming 14 years ago in 2012 as his debut PDC major title, have made this tournament his bread and butter.
Van Gerwen's standout year was 2016, when he produced the highest overall tournament average of his career at the event: 99.97, the highest first nine of 119.11, and a joint highest 180s count of 22. He defeated Gary Anderson 5-2 in the final that year. His other titles came in 2014 (5-3 vs James Wade), 2018 (5-2 vs Peter Wright), 2019 (5-2 vs Dave Chisnall), 2022 (5-3 vs Nathan Aspinall), and 2012 (6-4 vs Mervyn King). In the 2010s, the only times he failed to win when qualified were a final heartbreak against Robbert Thornoton, a quarter-final loss to Dave Chisnall in 2013, and a rare first-round loss in 2017. Five titles in eight appearances and a 46% title rate in his 13 appearances tell the story.
The most revealing metric in Grand Prix history is the first-nine average. In his 2014 title, the first nine average was 116.53 compared to his tournament average of 90.81 — a 25.72-point gap, the largest in a winning campaign. Across his six titles, the mean gap is 19.68. In 2016, the first nine never sat below 116, and with a 113-119 first nine-level scoring pressure on opponents, he succeeded. His mean checkout percentage across his six titles is 46.27%, with a mean tournament average of 93.47 and a first nine of 113.16. In 2018, he hit a remarkable 85.71% of his doubles in his first-round match against Steve Lennon.
However, Van Gerwen's World Grand Prix averages were often far below his other majors. In 2019, his World Grand Prix average was 92.03, but at the World Championships he averaged 103.28 and at the European Championships 105.10. This mean event averages over the four main majors across the 2019 season reveal a 9.80 point gap. Even in years he didn't win, the story was the same. In 2017, he was beaten in the first round by John Henderson with an average of just 87.64, while his World Championship average that year was 107.06. In 2020, he averaged 97.21 and was beaten in the quarter-finals by Simon Whitlock. In 2015, he reached the final with a checkout percentage of 32.26%.
Now, Van Gerwen faces a different challenge. In 2026, he dropped out of the top four for the first time in 12 years. In his last two appearances, he has failed to win a match, with a mean average of 88.28, and 2024 was the lowest average of any match he had played with 86.94. His new throw has produced less rhythm, and his scoring has been less consistent than at his peak. He defends just £7,500, and any money he can make between now and the World Championships, £200,000, is essential not just for his ranking but for his Premier League selection, with players like Ross Smith potentially taking that spot. He needs to focus on what has gone right this year, such as his 122.34 average against Schindler and his Players Championship 15 win. Over the last three months, his first nine has dropped to 101.43. If he wants to win this title and make his old stomping ground a new home, he has to find the scoring power.
